A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
